ConsumerIT - For Europe's High Volume PC Retailers, Distributors & Builders

IDC sees new opportunities for emerging sub form factors, such as ultrathin portables and all-in-one desktops.

Bob O'Donnell, Program VP, Clients and Displays says, "Hardware vendors and software developers should seize the opportunity to promote differentiation by rewriting the computing experience to match the new variety of PC sub form factors arriving in the market."

IDC's predictions for the PC industry in 2010 are:

1. Ultrathins will be under 5% of total portable PC shipments. The focus on ultrathin PCs will continue to grow in 2010, but the value equation for many consumers is still not compelling enough to drive significant growth.
2. Mini notebook shipment growth will drastically slow and plateau. Lack of differentiation and declining prices for other portable PCs will translate into shipment growth rates in the low double digit range, just under the portable PC average.
3. Average selling price (ASP) declines will slow dramatically. Stronger market demand from both the commercial and consumer markets should make it less likely that the market will aggressively lower ASPs.
4. Shipments of portable PCs with WiMAX embedded will surpass shipments of portable PCs with 3G cellular embedded in 2010. While activation rates for 3G enabled notebooks may be higher than WiMAX-enabled notebooks, the foundation is being laid for future WiMAX adoption.
5. Share of all-in-one desktops will double. All-in-one desktops to capture nearly 10% of the worldwide desktop market in 2010.
6. Portable PCs will account for more than 60% of all PC shipments.
7. 10% of new enterprise desktop client deployments will be virtual. The expected commercial market rebound will help.
8. Touch-enabled portable and desktop PCs will gain little traction. Without compelling touch-specific software, consumers aren't likely to buy touch-enabled PCs in large quantities.
9. Apple's launch of the iPad will not spur increased sales of Windows-based Tablet PCs. (Apple's iPad could find success, its shipments won't count in IDC's Tablet PC numbers since it doesn't run a full OS.)
10. DVD will remain the dominant optical drive type in PCs. DVD is "good enough" from both a price and picture quality standpoint to withstand the challenge from Blu-ray.

More than 4150 companies from 68 countries exhibited at CeBIT 2010 and average daily attendance at the show was up 3% year on year. The trade visitor ratio remained unchanged at more than 80%.

CeBIT’s enhanced event concept for 2011 revolves around four user-centric pillars:

• CeBIT pro will address professional users
• CeBIT gov will target government and the public sector
• CeBIT lab will be home to international research institutions and universities
• CeBIT life will cater to prosumers and the techno-savvy consumer.

Next CeBIT is March 1-5. Yes, that would be in Hannover.

Go Bob’s Byte on CeBIT 2010: Last Man Standing

IDC European Vertical Markets releases a new report that clusters W. European SMBs by their IT buying approach. This study names four groups of homogeneous SMBs:

• The laggards (16%) have a basic infrastructure and limited willingness to invest in the near term.
• Wait-and-see companies (36%) have a solid deployment of IT but prefer to wait until technology is mature and widely present in the market before engaging in other significant IT investments.
• IT-oriented companies (21%) have a solid IT deployment and a high propensity to invest further.
• The fast followers (16%) cluster despite a lower-than-average adoption of IT is the most keen to close the technology gap with early adopters.

This IDC study is based on the top five W. European countries and among 1193 SMBs with 20–499 employees.

I know you are thinking: "I could've told you that and I didn't need any fancy research..."

But here's the point:

Gartner expects the business PC market to bounce back in 2010, with Windows 7 migration as the catalyst.

They also expect mobile PCs to drive 90% of PC growth over the next three years. (In 2009, mobile PCs accounted for 55% of all PC shipments.)

Worldwide PC shipments should be up 20% in 2010 (366.1 million units).

Mini-notebooks will boost mobile PC growth in 2010, but will decline noticeably afterward, as they face growing competition from new ultra-low-voltage (ULV) ultraportables and next-gen tablets. Desk-based PC shipment growth will be minimal and limited to emerging markets.

Apple's upcoming iPad raises questions and Gartner's thinks vendors could ship up to 10.5 million traditional tablets and next-gen tablet devices worldwide in 2010.

"User requirements are clearly segmenting, and the mini-notebook proved this point," said Ranjit Atwal, principal analyst at Gartner. "…Apple's iPad is just one of many new devices coming to market that will change the entire PC ecosystem and overlap it with the mobile phone industry. This will create significantly more opportunities for PC vendors as well as significantly more threats."

Go Gartner on PC Sales