According to Gartner higher PC, ultramobile and mobile phone ASPs will lead to 2017 end-user spending worth nearly $600 billion, a 2% increase, even if unit shipments are to remain essentially flat.

Gartner forecasts ASPs for computing devices and mobile phones will increase by 2% in 2017. The reasons boil down to two-- increasing component prices (mainly for PCs but also phones) and customer interest in value and higher quality phones overriding the want for a bargain.

"Across the world, the device market is becoming less price-sensitive," the analyst remarks. "Consumers and businesses are seeking better products that suit their lifestyles, rather than just opting for the cheapest products."

According to IDC global shipments of what it calls personal computing devices (PCDs)-- combined traditional PCs and tablets-- are forecast to decline from 435 million units in 2016 to 418.2m by 2021, making a CAGR of -0.8%.

The forecast follows a stronger-than-expected shipments for traditional PCs in 2016. A combination of aggressive promotion in H2 2016 and a tightening component supply for notebooks helped drive stronger volume across both consumer and commercial segments in Q4. As a result, commercial notebook shipments ended on a positive note with 2% Y-o-Y growth, while consumer notebooks declined by just -1% Y-o-Y.

On the tablet side, slate shipments continue to decline as expected while detachable/hybrid devices see "dramatic" decline in Q4 2016. This is due to the segment's dependence on individual product launch cycles from the likes of Apple and Microsoft. The lack of Q4 product refreshes lead to a -26.1% Y-o-Y decline for hybrids and a "more tempered" outlook for the entire tablet market, even if IDC believes the growing popularity of hybrids will lead to a return to growth over the next 5 years.

Virtual Reality (VR) is set to "thrive off a swath of new and compelling content choices" after a content-starved market launch, ABI Research reports-- total VR device shipments are forecast to reach 110 million by 2021.

Currently mobile-reliant VR devices (such as the Samsung Gear VR and Google Daydream) lead the market, but the analyst predicts standalone headsets will see a 405% CAGR through 2021, compared to the 42% CAGR of mobile VR. The global market already has new players such as Royole and Pico, and many other Chinese vendors are expected to expand into VR.

“Mobile VR built a solid foundation for the overall market over the past few years, but standalone VR devices will eventually drive it,” ABI adds. “Low cost and high accessibility has, and will continue to, drive VR adoption with mobile devices and associated VR accessories. However, a trend toward standalone devices is surfacing, and will continue over the next five years until mobile and standalone VR devices see parity in terms of shipments.”

Gartner has no good news for the year in the global device market-- combined PC, tablet, ultramobile and mobile phone shipments appear destined to remain flat, reaching 2.3 billion, the same amount as 2016 estimates.

In addition, traditional device shipments are only projected to start growing in 2018, thanks to a "small increase" in ultramobiles and mobile phone shipments. The PC market will see a replacement cycle by 2018 to return to some growth, thanks to attractive premium ultramobile functionality and price points. In the meantime smartphones will also grow, if through customers in emerging markets replacing what is essentially their main computing device.