Canalys expects Apple to beat HP in global PC market share thanks to the iPad by H2 2012, after managing to take second place in Q3 2011.
The analyst estimates global Q3 2011 PC shipments total 415M with 15% Y-o-Y growth, predominantly due to growing tablet sales. One has to keep in mind Canalys adds tablet estimates to its PC market statistics, unlike other analyst such as Gartner and IDC whose pictures of the current PC market tends to be bleaker.
Canalys still echoes other analysts in pointing out the decline of the EMEA PC market-- forecasting the 2011 market (excluding pads) will contract by -6% Y-o-Y, with volumes peaking at 30M in Q4 2011. W. Europe continues dragging the region down as Euro Zone debt issues (and the resulting impact on the economy) affect both investor and consumer confidence levels.
“HP and Apple will fight for top position in Q4 [2011], but Apple may have to wait for the release of iPad 3 before it passes HP,” Canalys says. The going will potentially get even tougher for Apple should the cheaper Kindle Fire and Nook tablet competition make it outside the US, too.
Vendors continue struggling to remain profitable against Apple, even if Android 4.0 (Ice Cream Sandwich) should "bolster tier 1 manufacturers" by combining smartphone and tablet operating systems. The combination should also make it easier for developers to adapt smartphone apps to tablets use, making such devices more attractive.
However, the timing of the Ice Cream Sandwich release might end up harming vendors looking to clear inventory running on earlier Android versions.
Notebook sales are also fuelling 2011 market growth-- Canalys predicts total shipments will reach 211M with 10% Y-o-Y growth. Ultrabooks will bring "much needed innovation" to the category, but will only become widespread once prices drop "considerably."
Flooding problems in Thailand will continue severely impacting the HDD market, causing HDD shortages and reducing desktop, netbook and notebok inventories all through 2012. However SSD production should see a boost-- resulting in lower prices for both tablet and Ultrabook vendors.
Go Apple on Track to Become Leading Global PC Vendor (Canalys)
