The ongoing spread of the coronavirus (aka Covid-19) leads IDC to lower its 2020 forecast for personal computing devices (PCDs)-- predicting global shipments will drop by -9% to 374.2 million units.
The PCD forecast covers desktops, notebooks, workstations and tablets. It suggests numbers will improve on the long-term, if slightly, as shipments should should reach 377.2m by 2024 with a 5-year CAGR of 0.2%. The 2020 decline is the result of two significant factors. The coronavirus has already been mentioned, but one also has to keep in mind the Windows 7 to Windows 10 transition creates tougher Y-o-Y growth comparisons.
Either way, the forecast for Q1 2020 has shipments dropping by -8.2% Y-o-Y, with a -12.7% Y-o-Y drop following in Q2 2020 as the existing inventory of components and finished goods from Q1 2020 is depleted. Growth rates should improve in H2 2020, but the market will remain in decline. Assuming the spread of the virus subsides in 2020, 2021 should see "minor" growth as the market returns to normal, with modern form factors such as thin and light notebooks, detachable tablets and convertible laptops driving shipments.
"There's no doubt that 2020 will remain challenged as manufacturing levels are at an all-time low and even the products that are ready to ship face issues with logistics," the analyst says. "Lost wages associated with factory shutdowns and the overall reduction in quality of life will further the decline in H2 2020 as demand will be negatively impacted."
