According to IDC, 2018 shipments of personal computing devices (bringing together both traditional PCs and tablets) are down by -3.9%, and are set to continue dropping at a CAGR of -1.8% to reach 378.3 million units by 2022.
The latest forecast updates a number of assumptions to reflect areas of both growth and concern. For instance tablets, once seen as the biggest threat to notebooks, see "disappointing" numbers in Q3 2018. Slate tablets are expected to shrink over the 5-year forecast with a CAGR of -5.8%, while detachables see slightly better numbers thanks to interest from verticals such as education and finance.
Traditional PCs are also set to struggle, especially desktops, if with some bright spots-- namely gaming, business PC upgrades and higher end notebooks. Notebooks and mobile workstations are the biggest product category in terms of volume, and should see most growth through 2022. Chrome OS, as the dominant OS in the global education notebook market, should make gains in both consumer and business install base, while improvements in the Windows value offering bring gains in higher end systems such as convertible notebooks.
"In 2018, we've seen the detachable category waver as important product announcements were pushed to the last quarter of the year," the analyst says. "For the first time since the form factor's introduction, annual volumes are expected to be down compared to the previous year. However, we expect the market will recover in 2019 as new products from Apple, Microsoft, Samsung, and Google become more readily available."
Go IDC WW Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker December 2018
