Gartner expects the business PC market to bounce back in 2010, with Windows 7 migration as the catalyst.
They also expect mobile PCs to drive 90% of PC growth over the next three years. (In 2009, mobile PCs accounted for 55% of all PC shipments.)
Worldwide PC shipments should be up 20% in 2010 (366.1 million units).
Mini-notebooks will boost mobile PC growth in 2010, but will decline noticeably afterward, as they face growing competition from new ultra-low-voltage (ULV) ultraportables and next-gen tablets. Desk-based PC shipment growth will be minimal and limited to emerging markets.
Apple's upcoming iPad raises questions and Gartner's thinks vendors could ship up to 10.5 million traditional tablets and next-gen tablet devices worldwide in 2010.
"User requirements are clearly segmenting, and the mini-notebook proved this point," said Ranjit Atwal, principal analyst at Gartner. "…Apple's iPad is just one of many new devices coming to market that will change the entire PC ecosystem and overlap it with the mobile phone industry. This will create significantly more opportunities for PC vendors as well as significantly more threats."
