While the debut of a new PC OS historically results in double-digit DRAM shipment growth, IHS iSuppli predicts the Windows 8 launch will not follow the pattern-- global DRAM shipments will grow by only 8% Y-o-Y in Q4 2012.
The iSuppli totals also include DRAM shipments headed for tablet and smartphone use.
How come growth will remain lackluster? First off, Windows 8 requires no more DRAM than Windows 7 does, meaning it will not boost memory orders from OEMs.
Meanwhile the economic situation continues to make PCs an unattractive purchase for customers.
Historically, the release of a new Windows version resulted in double-digit DRAM growth-- according to iSuppli, back in Q1 1992 the Windows 3.1 release saw DRAM shipments growing by 29% Y-o-Y, while the Windows 95 launch boosted shipments to 23% Y-o-Y in Q4 1995.
During both periods DRAM growth was on average 11-14% Y-o-Y.
More recently, the Windows 2000 and Windows XP launches caused DRAM shipments to grow by 49% and 41% in Q1 2000 and Q1 2001 respectively. The Q1 2007 Windows Vista release caused shipments to grow by just 24% Y-o-Y, while Windows 7 saw further reductions in DRAM shipments with just 18% Y-o-Y growth in Q4 2009.
"As DRAM enters an era of diversified applications, the lack of a boost from a new operating system will prove less significant," iSuppli concludes. However, while the current situation results in less spectacular quarter-to-quarter shipment growth, it will also help diffuse the effects during lower periods.
Go In a Break from the Past, Windows 8 Will Not Spur a Surge in DRAM Shipments (IHS iSuppli)
