Global 2013 tablet shipments are to reach (slightly) lower than expected according to IDC-- 221.3 million units, down from earlier forecasts of 227.4m if with 53.5% growth over 2012.
The analyst says tablet growth is to shrink to single-digit percentages by 2017 with shipments peaking at 386.3m units, down from previous predictions of 407m units.
If you wonder how come, here is the answer-- small vs. large tablets, with large smartphones thrown in for good measures. Over the past 24 months the market saw preference for small tablets, but the rise of oversized smartphones might see consumers swing back to larger tablets. After all, what's the difference between a 6-inch smartphone and a 7-inch tablet?
The 9.7-inch iPad Air might also bring about a transition back towards larger displays, assuming (of course) consumers are willing to pay a premium for more display real estate.
"In some markets consumers are already making the choice to buy a large smartphone rather than buying a small tablet, and as a result we've lowered our long-term forecast," IDC says. "Meanwhile, in mature markets like the U.S. where tablets have been shipping in large volumes since 2010 and are already well established, we're less concerned about big phones cannibalising shipments and more worried about market saturation."
One operating system might benefit from a transition to larger tablets-- Windows, a platform that generally benefits from larger screen area. However the analyst says Windows will only win tablet share from iOS and Android during the latter part of the forecast.
"For months, Microsoft and Intel have been promising more affordable Windows tablets and 2-in-1 devices," IDC concludes. "This holiday season, we expect a huge push for these devices as both companies flex their marketing muscles; however we still don't expect them to gain much traction. We're already halfway through the holiday quarter, and though there have been some relatively high-profile launches from the likes of Dell, HP, and Lenovo, we've yet to see widespread availability of these devices, making it difficult for Windows to gain share during this crucial period."
