According to IHS iSuppli the average growth of DRAM content per PC will drop to a record low in 2013-- 17.4%, down from 21.4% in 2012 and the record highs of 56.1% in 2007 and 49.9% in 2008.
DRAM loading growth in PCs should remain low in the near future, rising by 21.3% in 2014 before sliding towards the 20% range until at least 2016.
The analyst attributes the decline to the current deceleration in the upgrade cycle (usually justified by the steady increase in PC capabilities) of both desktop and notebook PC.
“For a generation, PCs have steadily improved their hardware performance and capabilities every year, with faster microprocessors, rising storage capacities and major increases in DRAM content,” iSuppli comments. “These improvements... justified the replacement cycle for PCs, compelling consumers and businesses to buy new machines to keep pace. However, on the DRAM front, the velocity of the increase has slackened. This slowdown reflects the maturity of the PC platform as well as a change in the nature of notebook computers as OEMs adjust to the rise of alternative systems-— namely smartphones and media tablets.”
The adoption of ultrathin notebook form factors demand the limiting of DRAM quantities in favour of including other capabilities, as well as the actual thin form factor.
Meanwhile the desktop PC is a mature platform-- DRAM is less of a performance bottleneck when the latest Windows version does not demand an increase in DRAM amounts.
In other words the decrease in DRAM loading is another sign of the post-PC era, where PCs no longer generate enough growth and overwhelming market size to single-handedly drive demand, pricing and technology trends in DRAM (or any major technology business).
"The new normal now calls for a different state of affairs, in which DRAM PC loading won’t be growing at the same rates seen in past years," the analyst concludes.