IDC: Improvements Ahead for "Challenging" PCD Market

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According to IDC, W. European PCD (Personal Computing Device, covering both traditional PCs and tablets) shipments will total 79.2 million units in 2017, a -2.6% decrease.

The analyst combines desktop PC, notebook and workstation shipments with slate and detachable tablets. Some products, such as convertibles, ultraslims and detachables, are to expand until at least 2021, making 43.3% of the overall PCD market by then, compared with 21.9% at end 2016. This is the result of users across both consumer and enterprise segments going for thinner and lighter devices, instead of traditional solutions.

IDC Forecast PCD

As a result, the traditional PC market will still decline over the next 5 years, wheras the tablet market will show "some" resilience and stabilise over the forecast period.

The commercial PCD segment is to perform well, with a "slight" decrease by end 2017 before a return to positive growth by 2018 (1.2%). Growth should reach 6.4% in 2020, with SMBs as main driver. On the other hand the consumer segment should decline further until 2021, even if "not significantly." The longer lifespan of devices affects the consumer market, although some new form factors will be adopted, such as convertibles.

Traditional desktops and notebooks will contract over the next few years, and not even the increasing push in gaming will offset such decline. Since no major market shift is expected to drive demand over the forecast period, IDC predicts the two categories will decline by -6.5% and -15.4% during the 2016-2021 period respectively.

On the other hand detachables are expected to ramp up, especially in commercial space as large and very large businesses are showing signs of growth. The completion of the transition toward Windows 10 and the end of Windows 7 support will further push such devices. Meanwhile slate tablets struggle for growth, and are set to drop by -4.7% by 2021.

That said, IDC insists the traditional PC market is "fairly resilient"-- the value of the market is expected to be up by 3.9% at end 2017, thanks to an easing of the impact of component shortages in the coming quarters.

Further contributing to overall market stability are some markets, such as Spain and Portugal, showing improving signs of recovery, even as key markets such as the UK have low business confidence indicators.

Go IDC W. Europe Quarterly PCD Tracker September 2017