According to IDC 2014 smartphone shipments are set to grow by 23.8% to 1.25 billion units while tablets and 2-in-1 devices will reach 2331 million units with 6.5% growth, down from previous predictions of 12.1% growth.
The analyst adds total smartphone volumes will total 1.8bn units with a CAGR for the 2013-2018 period of 12.7%. Pushing such growth are emerging markets, as 2014 growth in mature territories is expected to crawl down to just 4.9%, compared to 32.4% in emerging markets.
"Mature markets have slowed considerably but still deliver strong revenues with ASPs over $400. Meanwhile, many emerging markets are still barreling along, but with ASPs of less than $250," IDC says. "The key for vendors now is to maintain a presence in the higher-margin mature markets, while establishing a sustainable presence within the fast-growing emerging markets. To enable this strategy, operating system companies are partnering with OEMs to provide low-cost handsets."
IDC expects emerging market smartphone volume will account for 73.5% of all shipments, with low-cost Android devices making 88.4% of said volume.
Another smartphone market shift is that towards larger devices-- the analyst predicts phablets (aka smarthones with 5.5-inch+ displays) will make 14% of the 2014 market before taking over 32.2% by 2018. Driving such growth forecasts is Apple, at least if it gives up to consumer demand for a larger iPhone.
When it comes to tablets, as said earlier the forecasts are down, even if IDC says shipments will still continue growing. "[W]hen we start digging into the regional dynamics, we realize that there is still a good appetite for this product category," the analyst says. "While mature markets like N. America and W. Europe will combine for flat unit growth in 2014, the remaining regional markets will generate 12% unit growth over the same period."
Thus, in a reflection of the smartphone situation emerging markets will be main tablet drivers. Interestingly, smaller (less than 8-inch) lower-cost tablets will drive sales in emerging markets, while mature markets show preference for larger, cellular-enabled tablets.
"Driven primarily by small devices, we expect the rest of the world to account for the majority of shipments in the years to come," IDC remarks. "But in terms of dollars spent, medium- to large-sized devices in N. America and W. Europe will still produce significant revenues."