Tablet shipments should surpass PC shipments on Q4 2013 before surpassing PCs on an annual basis by end 2015, IDC reports in the Quarterly Smart Connected Device forecast.
The analyst predicts the overall connected device market (combining PC, tablets and smartphones) will grow by 27.8% in 2013, with shipments reaching 1.6 billion units. Tablets and smartphones predictably spur such growth, while IDC lowers 2013 PC outlook by 10%.
In terms of revenue smart connected devices will grow by 10.6% to $622.4bn in 2013-- but such growth will trickle to just 3.1% by 2017, a tapering forecast caused by the the growing impact of low-cost smartphones and white box tablets.
"At a time when the smartphone and tablet markets are showing early signs of saturation, the emergence of lower-priced devices will be a game changer," IDC says. "Introducing new handsets and tablet devices at cheaper price points along with special initiatives like trade-in programs from Apple and Best Buy will accelerate the upgrade cycle and expand the total addressable market overnight."
The growing market should also see a new round of cannibalisation-- large-screen (5-inch+) smartphones/phablets are to start eating into smaller (7-8-inch) tablets over the next 12-18 months.
Meanwhile the shift from more expensive PCs to lower-price smartphones and tablets will cause a drop of collective ASPs from $462 in 2012 to $323 in 2017, as PC smart device market share drops from 28.7% of 2012 to just 13% in 2017.