According to Gartner global combined device (PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones) shipments are to decline by -3% in 2016, marking a second consecutive year of decline following the -0.75% drop of 2015.

"The global devices market is not on pace to return to single-digit growth soon," the analyst says. As such growth is set to remain flat during the next 5 years, with all segments declining in 2016 except for the single-digit growth shown by premium ultramobiles and entry-level phones.

PC shipments are forecast to drop by -8% in 2016 due to a combination of the install base bottoming out and a halting replacement cycle. That said, 2016 also sees the effect of currency depreciation on the market diminish, leading to flat Q2 2016 market growth (-0.9% Y-o-Y) in W. Europe after 4 consecutive quarters of decline.

However Gartner warns the PC market will remain difficult in W. Europe following the Brexit vote. Vendors will mitigate the currency depreciation of the pound by taking advantage of a likely PC component cost drop and "de-feature" PCs to keep prices down. As a result, PC prices in the UK should increase by less than 10% in 2017.

The leading PC vendors face a "stark choice," Gartner warns-- they must either overhaul their businesses in order to adapt to an over saturated market or leave the PC market by 2020.

"The PC business model as we have traditionally known it is broken. The top 8 mobile PC vendors have gained 11% market share over the past 5 years-- from 65% in 2011 to 76% in H1 2016; but this has come at the expense of profitable revenue," the analyst says. "While this does not mean that the PC market is finished, the installed base of PCs will continue to decline over the next 5 years, with a continuing erosion of PC vendors' revenue and profit."

The analyst continues traditional means of gaining shipment share-- competing on price to stimulate demand-- will not work in the PC market of 2020. This is due to multiple factors, such as users extending PC lifetimes until end of life, the cloud replacing business applications and storage, and, most crucially, price and specification are not reason enough for users to upgrade PCs. In fact, there is only one "true differentiation," and that is "a new and better customer experience."

Tablets might be on the decline during 2016, but IDC has a positive report for the future-- the device category will return to growth come 2018 and continue at least until 2020, thanks to the popularity of detachable/hybrid tablets.

"Appealing to the commercial audience will be key as detachable tablets aim to take a larger piece of the traditional PC market," the analyst says. "Windows and iOS already have solid detachable offerings and with the latest version of Android, Google will also have a horse in the race as they finally offer better multitasking support and added security features."

As tablet shipments continue sliding vendors need to "strategise survival tactics for their product portfolios," ABI Research says-- even if room can still be found for mid-term growth.

A number of companies have managed to find different means to survive. For instance, Amazon and Huawei continue making tablet despite dwindling figures, as does Xiaomi in conjunction with a Microsoft tie-up involving Android devices with pre-installed Office and Skype.

“Amazon and Huawei may successfully buck the trend, but each company is taking a drastically different stance on how to best accomplish this,” the analyst says. “Amazon managed to move away from raising revenue through hardware to recurring digital content sales, but Huawei, and even Lenovo for that matter, are instead looking to form a wider product suite that includes tablets in addition to their legacy PC and smartphone products.”