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Canalys: Tablets to Outship ALL PCs

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According to Canalys Q3 2013 global PC shipments are up by 18% Y-o-Y... wait, PC growth in this day and age? You see, unlike other analysts Canalys counts tablets as PCs-- and points out tablets as the only PC segment showing growth.

The analyst says tablets account for 40% of Q3 2013 PC shipments, or "less than half a million behind global notebook shipments." It also forecasts 2014 tablet shipments reaching 285 million (or 50% of overall PC shipments) before growing to 396m by 2017.

Canalys PC Forecast

Thanks to the iPad Apple is top PC vendor, and also one of the few with a "steady" desktop and notebook business. However Apple should lose PC market share to vendors selling more competitive devices if it continues to insist on protecting its immense gross margins.

“Apple’s decline in PC market share is unavoidable when considering its business model," Canalys says. "Samsung narrowly took the lead in EMEA this quarter and Apple will lose its position to competitors in more markets in the future."

Canalyst forecasts Microsoft will take 5% of the 2014 tablet market, up from 2% in 2012, thanks to the Nokia acquisition turning it into more of a fully-fledged mobile device vendor. However the company needs to change from "incumbent" to "challenger," and address the currently confusing situation surrounding the multiple Windows versions.

Android devices should make 65% of the 2014 market with 185 million units. Perhaps predictably Samsung leads with 27% Q3 2013 Android tablet share, but such share will decline to competition from "hundreds" of small-to-micro vendors and international players.

"The rise of small-to-micro brand vendors has proved that there is a demand in for entry-level Android tablets in every country and in every region,” Canalys remarks. “Vendors such as Acer, Asus, HP, and Lenovo have all entered the price war, with entry-level products at sub-$150 price points. With vastly different cost structures these vendors will continue to find it extremely challenging to keep pace with local competitors."

The tablet market already had a share of casualties-- BlackBerry gave up the PlayBook dream, and Barnes and Noble had to move away from independent hardware. Expects more of such excitement in 2014, with a replete with acquisitions, mergers and failures for "traditional" PC and tablet makers alike.

Go Tablets to Make Up 50% of PC Market in 2014 (Canalys)