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Trendforce: DRAM Prices Rebound in Q1 2013

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According to TrendForce's DRAMeXchange Q1 2013 sees a rebound in commodity DRAM prices-- mainstream DDR3 4GB module contract prices grow by 36.2% Q-o-Q (from $17.25 on Q4 2012 to $23.50), a rare occurrence in a traditionally weak 1st quarter.

The analyst expects growing DRAM prices will support revenue growth until at least until Q2 2013.

Memory prices

When it comes to vendors, Korea's Samsung and SK Hynix control 64.3% of the market, a -3% drop from Q4 2012. Samsung fails to benefit from the price rebound, with DRAM revenues dropping by -10% Q-o-Q due to commodity DRAM production reduced to less than 20% of total supply. However, thanks mobile DRAM output exceeding 40% (mobile DRAM remains the most profitable of memory products) Samsung still sees strong Q1 2013 margins despite revenue reductions.

Meanwhile weaker than expected Apple shipments slow mobile DRAM production at SK Hynix-- but with commodity DRAM output at 42% the company still manages to reach by 5.7% Q-o-Q revenue growth during the period.

Micron sees the highest rise in revenues for Q1 2013 (23.8% Q-o-Q), largely thanks to the addition of Inotera capacity to the Micron group.

Whether Elpida sees revenue growth or not depends on currency-- in yen, Elpida Q1 2013 growth totals 11% Q-o-Q, but currency depreciation causes a -2.3% Q-o-Q decrease to results in U.S. dollars.

Commodity DRAM contributes 9.3% Q-o-Q revenue growth to Nanya, despite a shift to foundry business. Powerchip also turned to foundry work, but following reduced Q4 2012 DRAM production the company sees 62% Q-o-Q growth after resuming production.

Windbond continues to focus on specialty memory sales, and now makes mobile DRAM, pseudo DRAM and low-density LPDDR products-- resulting in a slight 0.5% Q-o-Q rise in revenues.

Go Commodity DRAM Price Rebound Results in Unusually Strong Q1 2013 Revenue (DRAMeXchange)