According to IHS iSuppli 2012 WW NAND flash memory revenues drop by -7% to $19.7 billion (down from $21.2bn in 2011) as ultrabook sales negate the impact of surging demand from Apple.
The analyst is still hopeful for the future though, and predicts 2013 revenues will rise to $22.4bn before expanding during the next few years.
“Because of its high-memory density, combined with high-volume shipments, Apple’s iPhone line in 2012 was the largest single consumer of NAND, helping to increase demand for the memory from the smartphone market,” iSuppli remarks. “However Ultrabook sales fell short of industry expectations, dragging down the overall NAND market for the year.”
Apple iPhones consume 10.5% of the total 2012 NAND flash supply-- while all other smartphones use just 10.4%. The iPhone has an average NAND flash density of 24.5GB, the highest in all smartphones according to the analyst.
Meanwhile ultrabook sales disappoint the NAND industry, negatively affecting the flash memory prospects of cache SSDs for superthin PC use. The late Windows 8 launch also failed to generate interest in both consumer and enterprise segments, and high Windows 7 PC inventory levels remain well into Q4 2012.
Thus the fate of the NAND industry (in the near and intermediate term) rests on 3 pillars-- smartphones, tablets and SSDs. iSuppli predicts smartphone demand will "not run out of steam anytime soon," while tablets are becoming a major driving force in NAND demand as more vendors start to rival the iPad.
As for the still-nascent SSD segment, suppliers are still waiting for the "tipping point" where the consumer market fully embraces the format.
